Thursday value bets on Cameron Norrie?

The tennis season has really hit the warm-up stage for the US Open, now that the entire tennis world (or at least the top-level men’s and women’s tournaments) has returned to North America.

After a short stint on European clay after Wimbledon, all four ATP and WTA events are played on this side of the pond.

With the men playing in Washington, DC and Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, we have a few matches to choose from for Thursday’s action.

Let’s delve into a pair of interesting matches from the ATP side.


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Sebastian Korda (-135) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+115)

3 pm ET

The match that intrigues me the most from the American capital comes between Sebastian Korda and Grigor Dimitrov. With two players capable of hitting some brilliant shots, fans in attendance should be treated to some entertaining baseline exchanges.

In the end, the young American is the clear favorite for my money, and the -135 line offered at FanDuel is not enough. While Dimitrov may be the stronger server, once the point is in a basic exchange, I’ll take Korda to win most of these points for a few reasons.

First, his game has a lot more consistency. I wouldn’t expect to see nearly as many errors (forced or unforced) from his side of the net.

Second, his backhand is more solid than Dimitrov’s. The Bulgarian’s one-handed backhand is prone to unforced errors, but can also be rushed a lot more on that wing.

Finally, the ability to bounce back is a key asset on pitches that play anywhere from medium pace to medium-fast. There is no doubt that Korda is the best player in this regard. Dimitrov has never been strong in getting back to neutral in rallies in return games and then building points well enough to apply pressure on his opposition.

Statistically, Korda has beaten opponents on hard courts this season with a 30% discount – good ahead of Dimitrov’s 18%.

I’ll take the little favorite at a good price in this one.

Pick: Korda ML (-135 via FanDuel)


Cameron Norrie (-1000) vs Radu Albot (+600)

11 p.m. ET

At first glance, the money markets in this match seem outrageous. Even the spread at -5.5 is eye-watering and would likely require a straight two-set win to cash. However, the total is set at an eye-watering 19.5 games, which Cameron Norrie should be able to manage given the conditions in Los Cabos.

We know that the slower hard terrains are the preference of the British, and there are probably none slower than those of Baja California. The fact that this tournament only takes place in the evening/night locally also contributes to the slower conditions.

Norrie has absolutely dominated opponents at this venue dating back to his title here in 2021. He has played no more than 16 games in a match at this venue in any of his last four matches.

In fact, most of his slow hard court matches that have seen him win – but outnumbered – have been against the likes of Reilly Opelka, John Isner, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Sebastian Korda. The common theme among the four? They are all very tall and can find a lot of free points with their serve (and plus-one forehands).

With Radu Albot on the opposite side of the net, Norrie is in a much better position to replicate his dominant wins over the likes of Chun-Hsin Tseng (in his first match), Brandon Nakashima, Taylor Fritz or Ernesto Escobedo (his last three). victories at last year’s edition of this event).

I’ll take the sub here and trust Norrie to continue going to an event where he thrives.

Pick: Under 19.5 Games (+104 via DraftKings)

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